Trend Trading Vs. Value Positioning Into Technology & Metals - Blog ...

Speculation Versus Investing

Last month's newsletter?Follow The Money Flows?Or Lead??dispelled the notion of the Sell In May And Go Away trade being anything more than a recent coincidence. This month we'll touch on short-term Trend Trading versus longer-term Value & Growth Investing.

While a company's business values and growth fundamentals tend to drive mid to long-term share prices, short-term industry sentiment and general market behaviour can distort current prices greatly. Efficient Market theorists might disagree but I believe this emotional fear/greed factor is why there are always mispriced market opportunities?presuming a reasonable investment time horizon exists.

Popular short and near-term trading tactics for additional gains are anticipating Sympathy Plays and Sector Rotations?where traders switch from stocks that have recently moved to related stocks and sectors that have not kept pace. The concept is fairly simple, when a leading name's stock pops on good news?e.g. Better-Than-Expected Earnings?quickly find similar stocks within that business sector, or look for the next sector that might start to play on similar news.

Momentum surfing tends to run for a few days but then gives back some of the gain. These plays can have several up-phases?with frequent corrections?that together can take weeks, months or longer to fully develop. Recently we have seen sector rotations with sympathy plays back into Mortgage, Social Sites, Transportation, Chinese stocks to even Solar?Biotech and Pharma have been hot all year.

There can even be rotations within a single sector?e.g. transportation?with Shipping stocks hot in April while Trucking was more in-play last month. Market money flows change quickly, and to help identify the Market's Pulse live?the sector groups and stocks in-play at any moment?see our homepage's Filtered Mid-Day Market Movers, and subscribe to our free Weekend Recap newsletter.

While this type of speculation keeps Day-Traders and their e-brokers busy, I doubt that they are any further ahead overall by flipping several related names compared to just holding the leading stock play. Keep in mind that while frequent day trading has grown and has added to market liquidity, institutional investors are still key in moving share prices. They tend to put stock supply away, whereas day traders?by definition?return their shares to the float before the market's close.

Also consider that major stock price moves often happen overnight?in reaction to news released after the main markets have closed. In other words Stock Gaps attempt to factor-in news before the market reopens?which day traders will have missed. Don't get me wrong, I have no problem with day trading?just when speculation is confused with investing, or brains with a bull market.

Next Trends? Look For Value And Growth?Mega-Cap Technology & Mining

When a beaten-down sector finally begins a new up-trend, the first clear up-move tends to be the biggest. However, it's getting difficult to find a sector that hasn't played this year. The only remaining sectors that I can find, that haven't really participated and may be due, are commodities?especially metals and mining?and large-cap technology?specifically semiconductor chips and computers.

Sector rotation has mostly ignored leading mega-cap Dow (DJIA) components (NASDAQ: INTC) Intel Corp., (NASDAQ: CSCO) Cisco Systems and (NYSE: HPQ) Hewlett Packard. Unlike most other Dow stocks, all three are still closer to their 10-year lows than their all-time highs. From a value perspective, Intel has a P/E Multiple of only 12 with a substantial 3.61% Dividend Yield, Cisco's P/E is 13 and yields 2.82%, while Hewlett shows negative trailing earnings but still pays 2.35%.

Like fuelled rockets on the launch-pad that pay more than 10-year Treasuries while you wait, today these stocks get cited more as Dogs Of The Dow value plays rather than the high flyers they were back in the dot-com days. Back then their P/Es were in the triple digits with no dividend payout.

These companies still dominate their business sectors, with lots of capital muscle to innovate or grow through acquisition. Granted these are huge companies now, but they'll still get their due if/when tech gets hot again?when these leaders may be the first to finally breakout of decade long trading ranges!

On the other hand, many commodities have not just fallen behind the market's bullish pace, they are just down?period. No sector has been beaten-down as much lately as the mining group?lead by the recent plunge in Gold prices. In our February 4th newsletter?after 16-months of gold's correction?we noted, "a break below gold's $1,600/oz. base might signal a Bearish Reversal, whereas a break above gold's upper $1,800/oz. resistance level might signal a Bullish Continuation?like it did in 2006 and 2008. Whichever way gold moves to eventually break from its pattern could be dramatic?typically wider bases mean bigger moves."

This appears to have been spot on?or maybe $1,550 was the magic trigger?resulting in heavy gold ETF selling that promptly bungee jumped gold prices down over $200 to a low of $1,321.50 an ounce in April. The bounce resulted in gold recovering to the high $1,400's?on the back of strong physical buying?but now gold seems stuck in the high-$1,300s to low-$1,400s and technically directionless.

The problem with trying to predict gold's bottom is that new bottoms can always emerge. Even so, Gold Bugs should be asking if this is just an even more undervalued situation?created by short-term negative sentiment over unfounded worries. I highly doubt that this the end of gold's long-term secular bull-market?more likely that money flows have temporarily rotated to better performing equity markets. If so?when the U.S. markets hiccup?gold could rebound in a heartbeat.

Again we need to look at the value and growth fundamentals of why gold was a good investment in the first place. Gold was going up because it is a proven store of value against economic risks?i.e. Hyperinflation. With the world's currencies ongoing Debase-Race?with Europe's banks a mess and Japan's Yen printers now in overdrive as well?has anything really changed? Also consider the effect of lower gold prices on supply?with most all-in production costs around $1,200 an ounce today.

A recent Casey Research article?Gold Stock Sellers Remorse?shows the widening gap between GDP and debt and how Central Banks in emerging countries had bought almost a million ounces of gold last month. Further, when prices fell off a cliff in April, physical volume on the Shanghai Gold Exchange quadrupled. This is opposite the behaviour expected if gold's bull-market is done.

In February we compared the major North American indexes to several major gold and other metals producers?to demonstrate relative value. Here they are again, with February's trailing 12-month P/E shown first and then today's next to it:

Dow Industrials 15.37 / 16.47, Dow Transportation 18.47 / 21.26, Dow Utility 21.94 / 25.44, Nasdaq-100 16.64 / 18.55, S&P-500 17.92 / 18.28, S&P/TSX Composite 25.60 / 25.60, Russell-2000 31.24 / 59.12. Today's higher P/Es suggest that markets are more expensive then in February.

Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX)(TSX: ABX) 9.50 / N/A, AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) 12.10 / 6.65, Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE: GFI) 9.60 / 2.95, Harmony Gold Mining (NYSE: HMY) 8.20 / 5.16, IAMGOLD Corp. (NYSE: IAG)(TSX: IMG) 8.10 / 8.50, Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A. (NYSE: BVN) 8.60 / 7.72, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) 11.10 / 9.66, BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) 13.60 / 10.88. Today's lower P/Es suggest these stocks are even cheaper now.

Major miners were relatively inexpensive compared to North American indices back in February. Today this value gap is even wider as indices are more expensive?and miners are even cheaper. The Casey article showed how stock prices overshoot during crashes?with gold stocks now even cheaper than dirt! The example was (NYSE: GG)(TSX: G) Goldcorp, with the market's price per tonne of gold ore being $10.26, versus Topsoil, Compost and Mulch at $31.74, $49.59 and $88.16 respectively.

Contrarian Non-Gold Metals Play

Those convinced that the economic recovery is real, and sustainable?although not convinced of the value in owing Precious Metals?might instead look to infrastructure plays and Specialty Metals that have been beaten down. (NYSE: AA) Alcoa is the world's leading producer of primary and fabricated Aluminium, world's largest miner of Bauxite and refiner of Alumina, and a Dow 30 stock since 1959.

Alcoa is a bet on real industrial growth returning to America and the world's economies, and with this higher aluminum prices. Alcoa's trading range was $25-$40 for a decade prior to the Great Recession?now $8.12 per share. However, just because Alcoa's share price is historically low?marginally above its 2009 low of $4.97?does not mean it's a value play. Alcoa's P/E is high at over 35, and its dividend is low at only 1.47%.

Competitive pressures?i.e. Chinese producers?have squeezed Alcoa's market share, revenue and earnings. With a market cap under $9B?less than 1/3 of the second-lowest cap Dow stock?and with last month's Moody's credit downgrade, many are questioning Alcoa's status as a Blue Chip industrial. Most suggest (NASDAQ: AAPL) Apple Inc. or (NASDAQ: GOOG) Google Inc. as replacements.

While I get that Google is a blue chip company from its dominance in Internet Search?and in ad-serving?is it really a bellwether of how the economy or stock market is doing? How long can Apple continue to out-innovate the competition?to hold on to its iThingys high prices, profit margins and market share? Aluminum prices and Alcoa's shares are down, but neither is going the way of the Buggy Whip anytime soon?Contrarian Cyclical Trends suggest both are ugly enough to love again.

Small To Mid-Cap Specialty Metals

Prices for Rare Earths have suffered with other metals. We follow leading companies like (NYSE: MCP) Molycorp, which controls world-class light/heavy resources and produces high-purity custom engineered REE products. MCP's market-cap is now just over $1B at $5.69 per share and continues to test April's double-bottom chart lows at around $5?with a 52-week high/low of $23.29/$4.70. For a background on these strategic metals and the key players, see our Research menu and Rare Earths tab.

The only small-cap mining areas that have seen much excitement this year are Graphite and Uranium exploration. The graphite market is specialized with only a few players to focus on. Over the summer we hope to share a report about Graphite, Graphene and their unique properties and growth opportunities?including some of these companies.

Since the March 2011 record 9.0 earthquake and tsunami at Fukushima Japan?and the resulting Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident?we have been tracking beaten-up U3O8 prices and major producers shares for signs of their next cyclical up-trend. As a mined metal, uranium has suffered a further whammy?dismal financing options for mining markets in general. However if you research past the media's sound-bites, you will see why U3O8 may be better positioned than any other metal right now!

Uranium's dominant demand is for nuclear reactors, meaning that it's really a reliable, efficient, and environmentally safe energy play?cheap and with strong long-term growth fundamentals. We have shown how the world's U3O8 demand continues to build?already exceeding mined supply?while at the same time low prices force mines to close, and Russia ends its HEU supply of ~24M/lbs. annually.

Mining companies and even Developing Nations are adapting via creative financing. Last month Rosatom?Russia's state owned nuclear company?now offers a special package deal to finance, build and operate nuclear power plants. Similar to its arrangement with Turkey for four reactors, Egypt and South Korea have signed memorandum of understanding for nuclear cooperation.

While junior exploration is risky, there is nothing like a new discovery to ignite interest in a metal or an area play?even in the worst of mining environments. For months we have provided updates about (TSXV: FCU) Fission Uranium and (TSXV: AMW) Alpha Minerals' success in expanding their PLS high-grade uranium joint venture in the Athabaska Basin?rewarding shareholders nicely so far.

Uranerz Energy Corp. Update

Our favourite uranium value and growth plays are in between the Junior Explorers and Major Producers?companies with an established resource in a safe mining jurisdiction, and with the management skills, financing and permits in place to bring a mine into production. Development Plays are small enough that drill results can still impact share prices meaningfully, while also large enough to provide more certainty and safety?advanced projects are generally easier to finance.

Our featured uranium company continues to be (AMEX: URZ)(TSX: URZ) Uranerz Energy Corp.?which is developing its first ISR mine in Wyoming. As a company synopsis, I'll quote a recent Energy Report interview entitled Transformative Energy Technologies: Michael and Chris Berry.

"This company is a near-term uranium producer in Wyoming, and is particularly attractive due the fact that it is essentially derisked. Uranerz is exceptionally well managed and could be generating cash flow within a year. The company is fully permitted, has offtake agreements in place and should be receiving a $20M loan from the Wyoming Industrial Development Revenue Bond Program. The tolling agreement in place with Cameco Corp. (TSX: CCO)(NYSE: CCJ) is another positive attribute for Uranerz. Given that the Russians (JSC Atomredmetzoloto or ARMZ) have taken Uranium One Inc. private, Cameco may look to consolidate the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and integrate Uranerz into its operations there."

On June 7th Uranerz announced the completion of a $US6M short-term note financing. Instead of waiting for its $20M Wyoming state government loan to be fully processed, this bridge financing allows the company to commence drilling both of their required Deep Disposal Wells now!

Click the video screen below for a recent interview with Uranerz Energy's CEO Glenn Catchpole?or visit http://youtu.be/NcCUPKpYCc8

Uranerz Energy has a market capitalization of $93M at its current price of US$1.20 per share. On June 10 Dundee Securities updated their URZ target to $2.65; last month Haywood Securities updated their URZ target to US$2.80.

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Source: http://www.blog.investorsguru.com/2013/06/trend-trading-vs-value-positioning-into.html

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Dads whose wives died of cancer turn to NC group

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) ? When his wife died of cancer at the age of 39, Bruce Ham wondered whether the laughter would ever return to the house he and their three daughters share.

"And it is back. It took awhile, but it is back," Ham said, more than three years after the death of his wife, Lisa. "I still miss her. I think about her every day. But I don't cry every time I think about her. I smile and laugh. It's good to be on that side of grief."

A group that organizers say may be the only one of its kind in the country helped him on his journey to that other side. Therapists at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill said they started Single Fathers Due to Cancer because they saw a need to help men struggling with their own grief and their children's grief.

The group first met in October 2010 after therapists and doctors at the UNC Comprehensive Cancer Support Program realized several young mothers with poor prognoses were being treated there. After they died, "we sat and talked and realized that universal among these women was concern about how their husbands would do after they passed away," said Justin Yopp, a clinical psychologist and a staffer in the program. "We wondered, what's out there for these guys?"

Their research found no support groups for this specific group of grieving parents ? fathers whose wives died of cancer, which is the leading cause of death for U.S. women ages 25 to 54.

Some of the fathers said they tried other support groups but were turned off because they typically were made of women and older people.

"I think I desperately felt like I needed help, but I didn't really know where to turn," said Ham, 47, of Raleigh, who blogs about his life as a single parent and is writing a book titled "Laughter, Tears and Braids." ''When I heard about this group, it was much more appealing to me than any other group that I heard about."

Karl Owen, 50, was one of the first two members in the support group. "One of us would say something, and the other one's head would nod," said Owen, a computer programmer who lives in Chapel Hill with his son and daughter. "It became clear there was some value there."

Yopp and his colleague, Dr. Don Rosenstein, started the group with the intention that it would go for seven sessions or so. Instead, the same group of eight to nine men has met once a month for several years. The men are working to start similar groups in other areas. The UNC doctors also plan to start a second group there in the fall.

A psychiatrist at New York University also plans to start a group, perhaps as early as this fall. Dr. James Fraiman said he's interested partially because research shows that children who lose parents when they're young can do well in life if they have support. That support starts with groups such as the one at UNC, he said.

Also, women tend to manage their families ? to be the CEO, as Ham described his wife, he said. "A group like this can help these men support each other so they can be emotionally present for their children," he said. "Emotional presence is key for a family to heal and for them to move forward with their lives."

Research shows young mothers tend to choose aggressive treatment because they want to survive for their children, Yopp said, and that doesn't always leave time to say goodbye. Owen and Ham say they that's how their wives' deaths played out.

Owen's wife, Susan Buchanan, was an environmental scientist who died of lung cancer at age 47. She was one of a fraction of nonsmokers who get the disease. By the time the cancer was caught, it was already in her bones and brain. Owen and his wife had two conversations with Yopp about what to tell their children ? a daughter, now 15, and a son, 13. In one talk, they told the kids Mom might die of cancer, and in the second they said she was dying. The children got to say goodbye, but Owen said he didn't.

"By the time we got to that first conversation with Justin, the combination of brain cancer and radiation had affected her," he said. "She was not the same person she had been."

Lisa Ham died of colon cancer, which was stage 4 by the time it was diagnosed. "It was like a 747 flew by, and she was dead," Bruce Ham said.

He said part of the problem was denial, and part was that doctors wanted the couple to stay optimistic. "They wanted the treatment to be successful because of her stage of life and the fact that she had three kids," he said. "And they probably looked at me and said, 'He can't do this alone.'"

The men in the UNC group spent many sessions talking about cancer, grief and the emotional needs of their children. How much of your own grief do you share with your kids? How do you keep Mom's memory alive without every dinner turning into a grief session?

Three years out, they've moved on to discussing teenager issues, handling the logistics of a single parent and dating. When do you take off your wedding ring? How do you get one child to soccer and another to dance at the same time?

One persistent topic of discussion: raising a teenage daughter. "I feel completely out of my depth helping a teenage girl navigate cliques and social situations in high school," Owen said.

He gets plenty of advice from Ham, whose daughters are 15, 12 and 10. His blog posts include subjects such as the difference between a sports bra and a regular bra and why a girl needs both.

Since his wife's death, Ham said he has spent many days wondering, "What would Lisa do?" What to pack for lunch? Should the kids go to summer camp? He wishes he and his wife had thought to discuss the questions before she died.

Ham describes himself as an involved father before his wife died, but in the sense that he picked up the kids when Lisa told him to and played with them when he got home from work.

"She handled the schedules and the logistics and the planning of our lives," he said. "She knew the other moms and scheduled the play dates. Even our friendships, she cultivated most of those."

The laughter returned through his own hard work and the help he got from the group, where he was comfortable talking about the level of sadness in the house. That helped him uphold his promise to his wife that he would take care of their daughters.

"I realized that I was not raising them and taking care of things as she would have wanted me to," he said. "Realizing my promise to her shook me up."

___

Online:

http://www.singlefathersduetocancer.org/

Bruce Ham's blog: http://therealfullhouse.wordpress.com/

___

Martha Waggoner can be reached at http://twitter.com/mjwaggonernc

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/dads-whose-wives-died-cancer-turn-nc-group-133800179.html

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Cecily Strong, 'Saturday Night Live' Star, On Her Chicago-Area Roots, Drunk Cubs Fans & Her 'Dream Job'

For Oak Park native Cecily Strong, her debut season as an "Saturday Night Life" ensemble member marked a "dream job" come true.

After honing her acting chops on the Chicago scene -- studying at both Second City Conservatory and iO Chicago -- she made her first appearance on "SNL" last September and completed her first season with the ensemble last month.

Strong, who now lives in New York City, described the experience as "insanely wonderful," particularly when it came to the recurring porn star sketch she appears in with cast mate Vanessa Bayer.

"Vanessa and I get to do little subtle things that I like to spot later on while watching the [porn star] sketch online," she said. "I don't watch everything afterward, though. It's terrible to hear my voice or feel like I look fat or whatever dumb things girls' mean brains tell them, but I do love to watch the porn star sketches."

With "SNL" on summer break, Strong told HuffPost she is busy working on a new sketch/improv show with fellow Second City alum Sam Richardson as well as working on some screenplays with friends "to find out if screenwriting is something I'm good at. Jury's still out," she says.

This week, Strong returned to Chicago to perform in "Knuckleheads," a sketch/improv show, with fellow "SNL"ers and former Chicagoans Tim Robinson and Aidy Bryant as part of TBS' Just For Laughs Chicago festival. The show concludes its run with two performances at UP Comedy Club Saturday evening.

HuffPost Chicago recently asked Strong to open up more about her Chicago-area roots by taking part in our My Chicago questionnaire.

What is your age? What is your occupation? I'm 29 and I'm an actress.

What was your first job in Chicago? I started doing professional theater and industrials in Chicago when I was a little squirt. My first real non-acting job was at the Buzz Cafe in Oak Park when I was 15. I had to start as a dishwasher, but eventually I worked my way up to barista and sometimes waitress.

Which Chicago "celebrity" -- living or dead, real or fictional -- would you have over for dinner? What would you talk about? I'm a huge Bulls fan. I like an emotional backstory while watching sports. In my mind, all the players on the Bulls are really nice, decent guys. Especially that Derrick Rose. So maybe I'd have them all over for dinner and I'd tell them how great I think they all are. And how much I like to yell "Deng!" I would also tell Jo Noah and Nate Robinson that I wanted to play them in a sketch when Kevin Hart hosted.

What is your favorite ?last call? bar in Chicago? Old Town Ale House for sure. They've seen me at my worst and never judged me.

Where is your favorite place to grab brunch in the city? I like doing Mother's Day brunch at Kit Kat Lounge. Otherwise, Nookies in Old Town.

What are/were your go-to spots when you have visitors in town? I guess they'd have to go see shows at iO and Second City. Maybe dinner at Old Jerusalem.

If you had to have your last Chicago meal for some tragic reason, where and what would it be? This question is sad because it means either I'm about to die or Chicago is about to disappear. But I guess I would go to Gaudi Cafe on Ashland and Erie. It's my absolute favorite restaurant. The owners are sisters named Betty and Veronica. It's BYOB which I always love, and the food is insanely good. Everyone go there! I never want that restaurant to close.

Cubs or Sox? Sox. Easy. Especially after working in the box office at iO and having to walk through drunk Cubs fans. I've never felt such blind hatred and rage at strangers. I know Sox fans are not great, but I didn't have to walk through a bunch of drunk ones every week.

Wicker Park, 1993 or Wicker Park, 2013? Hmm? can I say Wicker Park, 2000? I used to like to go into the city in high school and pretend I was cool.

Chicago-style hot dog, Chicago-style pizza or Chicago-style politics? Pizza. Lou Malnati's.

What advice would you give to a new Chicago transplant? Go watch comedy. It's the best city for it. And eat at Gaudi Cafe on Ashland and Erie.

What do you miss the most when you're not in Chicago? I love New York, but I don't like how it smells like hot pee and garbage in the summer. I feel like Chicago isn't that way. Maybe I'm just being romantic.

If you could change just one thing about our fair city what would it be? The winter wouldn't hurt so much.

Describe Chicago in one word. It's not one word. My brain is exhausted waiting in this airport because the weather in Chicago sucks, of course, so my flight got delayed and cancelled. But I think the best way to describe a Chicago attitude is that we are not into show-offs. Even though I read somewhere that we have the most vanity plates.

In 1951's "Chicago: City on the Make," Nelson Algren wrote: "Once you've come to be a part of this particular patch, you'll never love another. Like loving a woman with a broken nose, you may well find lovelier lovelies. But never a lovely so real." Through My Chicago, HuffPost is discussing what, to this day, makes the patch we call home so lovely and so broken with some of the city's most compelling characters.

Also on HuffPost:

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Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/15/cecily-strong-saturday-ni_n_3447521.html

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Stanley Druckenmiller On China's Future And Investing In The New ...

From Goldman Sachs

Stan Druckenmiller is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Duquesne Family Office. He founded Duquesne Capital Management in 1981, which he ran until he closed the firm in 2010. Previously, he was a Managing Director at Soros Fund Management, where he served as Lead Portfolio Manager of the Quantum Fund and Chief Investment Officer of Soros

Interview with Stan Druckenmiller

Hugo Scott-Gall: What are the risks of investing in China that are not well understood in your view?

Stan Druckenmiller: The growth in credit at a time when GDP growth is slowing is a problem for China. And I think this is the 2009-11 stimulus coming back to bite. I understand that it had to be done to fund entrepreneurs and the private sector, but it?s easier said than done if you?re channelling funds through local government investment vehicles. I?m a believer in markets. A few men sitting around a table and deciding how to allocate capital goes against everything I?ve ever believed. Not only are they not great at capital allocation, such an exercise also needs to deal with a lack of property rights and corruption. In essence, the frantic stimulus China put together at the end of 2008 sowed the seeds of slower growth in the future by crowding out more productive investments. And now, the system?s building enough leverage and misallocation of resources to warrant risks of a financial crisis, but the timing of that is still uncertain in my mind. What we?ve seen in China since 2009 is similar to what happened in the US in 2005, in terms of credit growth outpacing economic growth.

I think ageing demographics is a bigger issue in China than people think. And the problems it creates should be become evident as early as 2016.

You also need to keep in mind that for China to grow and evolve further, it will need to compete with a more innovative Korea and now a more competitive Japan. I don?t think China can do that with where its exchange rate is today. I think productivity is a key concern too. And I think that could be one of the reasons why the US has been so supportive of Abenomics.

People mention lack of infrastructure as a constraint. But when I go over there, it looks like they have a lot of infrastructure. It seems ahead of the population, not behind. I see expensive apartments in empty cities that 300 mn rural Chinese are expected to migrate to.? That looks very unbalanced to me. Nobody?s ever had investment to GDP at 47%. Japan and Korea peaked at 36%-38%, so as a result I think capacity is way ahead of demand in some areas in China.

Hugo Scott-Gall: If China slows its fixed asset investment, will that have a knock on effect for its commodities demand and thus commodity prices?

Stan Druckenmiller: When I started in 1976, I was taught by my mentor that when cash flow rises equities go up. But commodities are driven by the cost of extraction 90% of the time, and over the long run, technology makes extraction cheaper, pushing the cost curve down and with it commodity prices. But that hasn?t always worked, if I?d followed that advice over the past few decades, I?d be in trouble.

About five years ago, I bought into the peak oil thesis. But then, along comes shale oil and shale technology, reminding me of what my old mentor said 35 years ago. Now I?ve come to think that the oil price is not as vulnerable to China slowing down as it is to ongoing shale supply growth. I regard the ramp up in investment by China as a 10-year aberration, making the last two years more normal and more representative than the previous decade.

I do think China is serious about rebalancing, which means infrastructure investment is going to slow. And obviously, there's been a huge ramp-up in supply around the world in response to the 2009-11 stimulus, which in my view is a massive misread by the suppliers of these commodities. So that?s not good for commodity prices. And then you have innovation. Can technology progress in iron ore and copper, the way it has with shale energy? My guess is it will.

If you look at food, there?s now technology that allows seeds to be drought-proof and disease proof. Yes, there is a demand-supply argument for food prices rising, but the impact of technology on food supply is greater than you think. On the other hand, we are using up more and more good arable land to build cities in China and there is a water problem in China too.

Hugo Scott-Gall: Do you think we underestimate the role of innovation in resolving these global constraints?

Stan Druckenmiller: Even with all the progress we have made in technology in the recent past, I think we are only scratching the surface in terms of innovation. We haven?t seen half of the practical applications of big new technologies yet. And the cost of these technologies will come down too, whether it?s robotics or driverless cars. That has to provide a productivity boost.

But there is a downside to technology-driven productivity surges too. There is improved efficiency, but at the cost of fewer jobs. I think the impact of technology on manufacturing jobs is easy to overlook because of the huge surge in services jobs. But we?re now at a point where the impact of technology is hitting the services sectors too. And not everyone understands this. I recently brought up the possibility of driverless auto technology resulting in zero jobs for truck drivers within the next 20 years and there were gasps of disbelief from the audience of investors. When I mentioned it to a high-tech company CEO from Silicon Valley a few days later, his response was exactly the opposite. The point is that the problem with a tech-driven productivity surge is that the benefits of that are going to accrue to a smaller, narrower group. Already, computer engineers have benefitted from computing and the internet a lot more than the broader population.

You could draw similar conclusions on the impact of technology and automation on investing. I believe that good investors are successful not? because of their IQ, but because they have an investing discipline. But, what is more disciplined than a machine? A well-researched machine can make many average investors redundant, leaving behind only the really good human investors with exceptional intuition and skill. And what happens when machines really take over investing? Do the markets get really efficient? Or will there be competing systems trying to outdo each other? All of this is depressing because there won?t much left to do for humans once machines start doing more and more.

If machines do everything well, including allocating capital and resources efficiently, can that be deflationary, can that eliminate poverty? I don?t know. It?s hard to be very optimistic if you look at how humans have behaved historically. All in all, I don?t think robots and greater automation can bring about a utopian world as I imagined it would as a kid 50 years ago.

Hugo Scott-Gall: If you combine the prospect of fewer jobs with an ageing population, it doesn?t look very good for many economies...

Stan Druckenmiller: Apart from India, most of the other major economies have worsening demographics to worry about. It?s a big problem for the US too, especially given that relative to many other economies, including Japan, its fiscal gap is much wider. All in all, I don?t think robots and greater automation can bring about a utopian world as I imagined it would as a kid 50 years ago.

You can look at the US debt stock in a few different ways. The official estimate of the total debt may be US$11 tn, but if you include what the Fed has bought (which you should), then the number if closer to US$16 tn. But a better measure of US debt would include some of the off balance sheet items. Laurence Kotlikoff, who is one of the top economists in his field of generational accounting, estimates the present value of US debt including what has been promised to senior citizens, adjusted for the projected tax revenues and the fiscal gap, to be about US$211 tn. That?s staggering.

The US needs to resolve its debt problem politically, otherwise it is headed towards default. I believe the estimates suggest that the US needs to raise all taxes by about 64% in order to be able to support its older population. That?s raising payroll, capital, dividends and income taxes by 64%. The other option is to cut all government spending by 40%. Neither one is a viable option and a combination is not easy either. In 20 years, those numbers will become even tougher. The US will need to raise taxes by 75% or cut spending by 46%.

There has been vigourous debate on the veracity of Rogoff and Reinhart?s research on the consequences of countries exceeding 90% debt-to-GDP. But it doesn?t take away from the fact that historically, such levels of indebtedness has resulted in extreme implications.? Countries tend to go into a full-blown monetisation or a default or inflation on average 23 years after they cross the 90% threshold according to their research. So these debt levels are less relevant for you and me today, but will be extremely crucial for our children. If we continue to borrow and spend like we do now, this can become a serious problem in 15 years.

If machines do everything well, including allocating capital and resources efficiently, can that be deflationary, can that eliminate poverty? I don?t? know.

I understood the need for QE1 because the US economy faced a potential meltdown then. But further easing brings problems of its own, that only come to light in hindsight. All that easing and prolonged negative real interest rates have gone beyond resolving the core issues the economy faced and has led to re-leveraging. I?m not worried about inflation as much as misallocation of investment.

Another consequence of today?s monetary policy is that the US government is not getting any price signals. In any other society, at some point in the next 15-20 years, the markets will give a price signal and the politicians will need to respond. But currently, there is no such impetus for politicians to act. What adds to the problem is that young Americans don't vote. Old people not only vote, but also have incredibly powerful lobbying groups behind them. Entitlements in 1960 were 28% of government outlays, today it is 67%. And the baby boomers have only now begun to retire. Another debate is that this is a huge reason to accelerate immigration, but current policy is moving in the opposite direction. But even with immigration, the US needs to fix this pay-as-you-go system or the consequences could be quite drastic.

Hugo Scott-Gall: Do you think investing is becoming harder now with more government intervention and regulation interfering with market price signals?

Stan Druckenmiller: It has become harder for me, because the importance of my skills is receding. Part of my advantage, is that my strength is economic forecasting, but that only works in free markets, when markets are smarter than people. That?s how I started. I watched the stock market, how equities reacted to change in levels of economic activity and I could understand how price signals worked and how to forecast them. Today, all these price signals are compromised and I?m seriously questioning whether I have any competitive advantage left.

Ten years ago, if the stock market had done what it has just done now, I could practically guarantee you that growth was going to accelerate. Now, it's a possibility, but I would rather say that the market is rigged and people are chasing these assets, without growth necessarily backing confidence. It's not predicting anything the way it used to and that really makes me reconsider my ability to generate superior returns. If the most important price in the most important economy in the world is being rigged, and everything else is priced off it, what am I supposed to read into other price movements?

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Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-14/stanley-druckenmiller-chinas-future-and-investing-new-normal

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Archery soaring after London Olympic success ? Artesia News

In this image released by Lionsgate, Jennifer Lawrence portrays Katniss Everdeen in a scene from ?The Hunger Games?. Lawrence, playing a bow-toting heroine in ?The Hunger Games? early last year, helped point a young fan base toward the London Olympic stage, where archery was contested at the historic Lord?s cricket ground.(AP Photo/Lionsgate, Murray Close, File)

LAUSANNE, Switzerland (AP) ? From blockbuster movies to hit TV shows to greater Olympic exposure, archery seems to be hitting all the right targets.

Elite archers are competing this week in the World Cup series in Antalya, Turkey, the first major event since the sport was elevated by the IOC to a higher ranking that will ensure a bigger share of Olympic revenues every four years.

Archery?s rising reputation is partly built on its success at last year?s London Games, and a boom in pop culture attention.

?The announcement of these groups clearly shows we are an important Olympic sport,? World Archery secretary general Tom Dielen told The Associated Press in an interview at the governing body?s headquarters. ?We?ve done what we were supposed to do.?

High-technology aids for scoring and showcasing the sport are also in the works for the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro to help retain a new generation of fans and attract more.

Oscar-winning actress Jennifer Lawrence, playing a bow-toting heroine in ?The Hunger Games? early last year, helped point a young fan base toward the London Olympic stage ? where archery was contested at the historic Lord?s cricket ground.

There?s more to come: Three more ?Hunger Games? movies are set to open before the next Olympic flame is lit in Rio on Aug. 5, 2016. ?Catching Fire? is scheduled for release in November, followed by a two-part adaptation of ?Mockingjay,? the final book of the series.

In the hit HBO series ?Game of Thrones,? the bow and arrow is a weapon of choice for children of the Stark family. And don?t forget last year?s hit animated movie ?Brave,? featuring the skilled archer ? and princess ? Merida.

?Hollywood adores archery for the moment,? Dielen said. ?London has delivered beyond what we expected. It has definitely put the bar higher for Rio and it will be a challenge to deliver at least the same, if not better.?

A high-profile venue in the city famous for its annual Carnival party should certainly help.

Archery will be contested in the Sambadrome, the narrow parade route for Carnival floats packed with dancers and drum bands. The venue also will welcome the finish of the marathons.

?It?s very iconic,? Dielen said. ?It will be more of a tunnel effect and spectators will feel closer to the athletes (than in London).?

It?s a step up from Rio?s original plan to host archery in the more distant Deodoro neighborhood.

The sport is getting a taste for picturesque venues: In September, the five-event World Cup series climaxes beneath the Eiffel Tower in Paris.

?It will be the best backdrop we have had so far,? Dielen said. ?We really want to continue going in that direction.?

Archery will surely also do well if Istanbul is chosen to host the 2020 Olympics. The Turkish city is competing with Madrid and Tokyo, with the winner to be chosen by the IOC on Sept. 7.

World Archery?s president is Ugur Erdener, a Turkish IOC member who is prominent in the Istanbul bid. He will seek a third term in an election scheduled on the sidelines of the archery world championships, which open Sept. 29 in Antalya.

Over the next presidential term, World Archery has a $1 million windfall to spend on development. The sport received more than it budgeted for when the IOC shared out better-than-expected commercial revenues from the London Games.

Boosted by its London showing, archery was elevated into the third of five tiers ranking the 28 sports. The IOC weighed factors including a sport?s popularity with broadcasters and with social media users. Now, more money could flow from its share of Rio revenues.

Dielen said any surplus should be invested at the grassroots level rather than directed toward top athletes such as Brady Ellison of the United States, who is among ?maybe 10 to 15? archers earning enough from prize money and endorsements to be independent professionals.

France has been a big success story for archery, but clubs there have reached the limit with 70,000 total members ? tripled since the 1992 Barcelona Games.

?We could probably have 80,000 members if we had the resources with the coaches and space in the clubs,? said Dielen, whose native Belgium has a model program in shaping its national championships to the format and presentation style of a World Cup event.

The World Cup is also the testing ground for new technology, including a precision scoring monitor using lasers and displaying archers? heart rates as on-screen graphics.

While tennis has Hawk-Eye to review line calls, archery has a system from Hungary called FalcoEye which measures arrows more accurately than judges using a magnifying glass.

?We?re trying to take the human error factor out of the game,? Dielen said of a system that?s ?affordable and reliable? after years of development.

Soon, viewers also will be taken to the heart of the action as monitors, discreetly attached to an archer?s leg, will record the pulse rate ? on average, around 105-110 beats per minute ? at the moment of firing.

?We really need to show how it follows from the athlete?s point of view,? said Dielen, who also hopes to see an archer?s sighted aim projected onto television graphics.

All these changes in presentation could be ready for Rio, where the traditional Olympic dominance of South Korea and the United States is likely to face tougher challenges.

The boy?s gold medalist from the 2010 Youth Olympics was Ibrahim Sabry of Egypt.

That, said Dielen, is an ?unbelievable? development in a sport that seems to be finding new believers every year.

This entry was posted on June 12, 2013, 11:47 am and is filed under International. You can follow any responses to this entry through RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

Source: http://www.artesianews.com/2013/06/12/ap-news/international-ap-news/archery-soaring-after-london-olympic-success/

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Microsoft Xbox One gaming roundup (hands-on) - Engadget

It's a black set-top box. It's a media streamer. It's dependent on an internet connection. It's a living room hub. It wants to be your everything. But really, the Xbox One (or any new, next-gen console for that matter) is nothing without launch games. To get a real sense of that lean-in experience on the Xbox One, we spent some time in Microsoft's (very green) E3 booth playing the various available demos. So join us then, as we deliver some brief impressions of what to expect when you boot up that Day One edition console later this year.

Forza Motorsport 5

The Microsoft rep we spoke to wouldn't quite commit to calling it a racing simulator, but did go on to say Forza Motorsport 5 would be a mostly "authentic" racing experience. From the jump, the Xbox One's dazzling graphical capability is noticeable in the surrounding "track" -- in this case, a nearly architecturally faithful Prague, Czech Republic. Everything from the environmental lighting when passing under trees, to the hyper-realistic rendering of the cars themselves and even the ability to view the background from the car's side view mirrors should astound early adopters.

The demo allowed us to select from two car options, after which we were able to tweak some assist settings, as well as set difficulty (i.e., Hard, Advanced and Expert were the three maximum options). Gameplay is fairly straightforward, with acceleration mapped to the right trigger button and braking on the left. Surprisingly, the game also features a rewind button which lets gamers reverse fortunes should they encounter some embarrassing spin outs. As for the driving experience itself, gamers will be pleased to know that you can feel the car accelerate from the bottom half of the controller, while feedback like braking is fed directly into the triggers. In all, it should make for an enjoyable, though predictable racing experience.

Ryse: Son of Rome

If you're looking for the Xbox One "showcase" demo of E3, Ryse: Son of Rome is probably it. It's a gorgeous display of fire, falling rubble, bloody combat and general Roman superiority. It's pretty fun, too. The deftly animated melee combat reminds us a little of Batman:Arkham Asylum, but with a more mature bent. After chopping away at a few enemies, players are presented with a kill sequence allowing them to follow a few on-screen button prompts to up the ante of the execution sequence. Once this sequence starts, your character is pretty much guaranteed to come out victorious. The challenge of Ryse is in mastering the gameplay. It was fun, challenging and darn pretty. All in all, this feels like a solid launch title and an exclusive that really shows off what the hardware can do.

LocoCycle

This is definitely one of the kookier games shown off at Microsoft's booth and also one that's headed to Xbox 360, as well. This Twisted Pixel effort puts players in control of I.R.I.S., a motorcycle equipped with combat moves and weapons... as well as a human character being dragged by its rear wheel. From a graphical standpoint, LocoCycle lacks the wow factor you'd normally associate with next-gen games, opting instead for a more cartoonish presentation. Still, the actual gameplay experience was fun, if not a little disorienting, letting you zoom around terrain on various rails to (what else?) fight baddies. The game definitely zips along at a solid framerate, so you won't be lamenting speed, especially if you use the available turbo boost. Is this an essential day one purchase? Hard to say. It seems more of a fun diversion, than must-have for your initial Xbox One library.

Killer Instinct

There's nothing harsher than walking up to a well established fighting game and getting your rear handed to you by a frame-counting enthusiast. When it comes to fighters, we're mere amateurs. Lucky for us, the Killer Instinct franchise has been quiet for a few gaming generations, and our E3 opponent was just as rusty as us. Microsoft provided us with a proper analog fightstick for our inaugural match: Saberwulf vs Jago. It didn't take long to see the trapping of the series shine through its new HD graphics. Our game's trademark dual-lifebar match dictated who was the victor (hint: it was us) and we even stumbled upon a few automatic combo sequences. It's hard to get a sense of a fighter after only one match, but Killer Instinct feels like a solid reintroduction for the series. At the very least, it's worth a few pick-up rounds.

Crimson Dragon

It's hard to deny: dragons are pretty cool. But dragons flying through a seemingly active volcano? Even better. This Xbox One on-rails shooter (an exclusive) is a pretty exciting display of the new console's graphics, but it's still fairly simple gameplay-wise. Despite all of the action unfolding around our flying reptile, Crimson Dragon's E3 demo felt unchallenging, providing only limited control of our Dragon and an enormous targeting reticle that made our target exceptionally difficult to miss. Even so, it reminds us of the side-scrolling shooters of yore. It doesn't seem deep, complex or particularly challenging. But if you're looking for some mindless fun, it should do the job.

Sean Buckley contributed to this report.

Source: http://www.engadget.com/2013/06/11/microsoft-xbox-one-gaming-roundup-hands-on/?utm_medium=feed&utm_source=Feed_Classic&utm_campaign=Engadget

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